All material on this web site is copyrighted
by Honourcode, Inc. 1999-2012.
System projects today have more complexity than ever before,
because system products far exceed even the dreams of prior years.
Projects frequently involve great technical uncertainty, made more
challenging by an environment with dozens to hundreds of people
from conflicting disciplines. Yet uncertainty has two sides: with
great risk comes great opportunity.
Recent work in risk management has revealed new methods that are
more effective than ever before. Risks and opportunities, for instance,
can be handled together to seek the best balance for each project.
Uncertainty issues can be quantified to better understand the expected
impact on your project. Technical, cost and schedule issues can
be balanced against each other.
Some of the best recent work shows that nearly all project leadership
decisions are actually risk-based decisions. So if you apply a conscious
approach to risk, your decisions can be better.
This course provides detailed, useful techniques to evaluate and
manage the many uncertainties that accompany complex system projects.
Register here to receive more
information on our courses.
course if you are:
- A leader or a key member of a complex project team
- Concerned about technical, cost and schedule uncertainty
- Seeking methods to bound risk while reaching for opportunity
- Looking for practical methods to use today
is aimed at
- Program managers
- Project managers
- Systems engineers
- Technical team leaders
- Logistic support leaders
- Others who participate in defining and developing complex systems.
Managing Uncertainty –
Concepts of uncertainty, both risk and opportunity. Complex system
projects, and expectations for what to achieve. Terms and definitions.
Roles of a project leader in relation to uncertainty.
- Uncertainty as a central feature of effective management
- Targets, expectations, and commitments
- Qualitative versus quantitative risk analysis
- Risk efficiency
- Formal risk management concepts
- Impacts of contract types and procurement processes
- Risk management and the contractual process
Practical Probability Theory –
Review of essential mathematical concepts related to probability,
including the psychological aspects of probability.
- Review of Probability Theory
- Probability concepts
- Conditional probabilities
- Correlation and independence
- Statistical measures and moments
- Density and distribution functions
- Key theorems (central limit, large numbers)
- Stochastic dominance
- Psychological biases in statistics
- Utility functions
Risk Identification – Methods
to find the risk and opportunity issues. Potential sources and how
to exploit them. Guiding a team through the mire of uncertainty.
- Sources of risk
- Methods to identify risk issues
- Identifying possible responses
- Secondary sources and responses
- Identifying issue ownership
- Submarine Explorer Case Study – Risk Identification
Qualitative Analysis –
Understanding the issues and their subjective relationships using
simple methods and more comprehensive graphical methods.
- Simple risk analysis using the US DoD method of 5x5 matrices
- Structuring the issues for more complete analysis
- Specific and general responses
- Diagramming methods (source-response diagrams, fault trees,
- Identifying issue ownership
- Technology readiness assessment
- Submarine Explorer Case Study – Qualitative
Quantitative Analysis – What
to do when the level of risk is not yet clear. Mathematical methods
to quantify uncertainty in a world of subjectivity, and then work
with the impacts of multiple risks in combination.
- Assessing the usefulness of quantification
- Typical result: Probabilistic PERT networks
- Estimating the variability through expert quantifications
- Restructuring the quantification
- Quantification methods
- Merging subjective and objective data
- Evaluating overall implications of issues in combination
- Dependency among issues
- Portraying the effect through useful graphics that help to
diagnose the implications
- Sensitivity tests and financial portrayals
- Submarine Explorer Case Study – Quantitative
Risk Response Planning –
Deciding what to do about the uncertainty. Selecting an appropriate
response to each risk, and how to implement those responses.
- Four primary possible responses to risk – control, avoidance,
- Designing/implementing a risk response
- Harnessing the five levels of plans
- Managing and shaping expectations
Risk Monitoring and Control –
Tracking the risks over time, while taking effective action. How
to monitor the risks. Balancing analysis and its results to prevent
“paralysis by analysis” and still get the benefits.
- Managing the planned actions
- Risk monitoring and repetitive risk management
- Crisis control
- Submarine Explorer Case Study – Risk response
Risk Management Planning –
Creating the Risk Management Plan. What to include and how to establish
effective risk management.
- Risk management planning, and the tools to include in the plan
- Establishing risk management as a culture in an organization
- Practical methods to do effective and efficient risk management
using minimal resources
Continuing Education: This course qualifies for 2.1 CEUs or 21
Eric Honour, CSEP, has been in international leadership of
the engineering of systems for a dozen years, part of a 40-year career
of complex systems development and operation. His energetic and informative
presentation style actively involves class participants. He was the
founding Chair of the INCOSE (International Council on Systems Engineering)
Technical Board in 1994, was elected to INCOSE President for 1997,
and served as Director of the Systems Engineering Center of Excellence
(SECOE). He was selected in 2000 for Who’s Who in Science and
Technology and in 2004 as an INCOSE Founder. He is on the editorial
board for Systems Engineering. He has been a systems engineer, engineering
manager, and program manager at Harris Information Systems, E-Systems
Melpar, and Singer Link, preceded by nine years as a US Naval Officer
flying P-3 aircraft. He has led or contributed to the development
of 17 major systems, including the Air Combat Maneuvering Instrumentation
systems, the Battle Group Passive Horizon Extension System, the National
Crime Information Center 2000, and the DDC1200 Digital Zone Control
system for heating and air conditioning. Mr. Honour now heads Honourcode,
Inc., a consulting firm offering effective methods in the development
of system products. Mr. Honour has a BSSE (Systems Engineering) from
the US Naval Academy, MSEE from the Naval Postgraduate School, and
is a doctoral candidate at the University of South Australia.
||Mr. Michael Jones, CSEP, is an effective Program
Manager and Systems Engineer with the dynamic ability to present course
material in an exciting and worthwhile way. He has led teams composed
of end-users, managers, programmers, engineers, technicians, and trainers
to develop optimal combat systems training equipment. Mike has been
a lecturer at Johns Hopkins University, and he has been a Program
Managaer at Applied Physics Laboratory leading a $10M program using
modeling and simulation to assess undersea warfare. He was a career
Naval officer, eventually serving as Commanding Officer of the Submarine
Training Facility, Norfolk, VA. He has a BSCS from the US Naval Academy,
MSEE and Executive MBA from the Naval Postgraduate School, and is
a doctoral candidate at Old Dominion University based on work in the
field of modeling and simulation.
Page last modified 28 Apr 13